April export figures are out for Taiwan and Korea.
Taiwan posted a 34 % yoy drop, nearly as bad as during Q1. Exports to the US, China and Rest of World were all down 34 %.
Korea looks better at first glance, dropping only 19 % yoy. However, Korea's biggest export good is ships, which are usually ordered years in advance and therefore still hardly affected by the current crisis (as long as buyers placed firm orders and don't default on them). And ship deliveries are up 40 % compared to last year, whereas most other stuff is declining much more than 19 % (e.g. cars -42 %, computers -44 %, semiconductors -26 %, machinery -35 %).
In short, so far there's no sign that world trade is reviving. And if China's economy is improving, it sure is doing so without buying more Taiwanese or Korean stuff.
2:00PM Water Cooler 3/24/2017
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