Donnerstag, 9. April 2009

Commercial Shipping: Update

According to Bloomberg, China will bail out its ailing state-owned shipyards by directing state-owned shipping lines to pick up orders cancelled or otherwise abandoned by international buyers.

Apparently, worldwide orders for commercial vessels are down 95 % year-on-year in March, with a total order volume of just 9 ships being placed worldwide.

Meanwhile, Chinese shipyards alone had 110 cancellations in the 5 months from October to February, and it is expected that 60 % of remaining orders will be cancelled this year or next.

China Daily is running a similar article:

New orders placed with Chinese shipyards in Q1 are down 98.3 % year-on-year (orders at all shipyards worldwide are "only" down 97 %).

The China Shipbuilding Research center expects the "global shipbuilding depression" to possibly last "even more than 5 years".

And China Import-Export Bank has extended fresh credit lines of 160 bn RMB (17 bn €) to China's two largest shipyards (both state-owned). Sounds like lots of bad loans in the making...

Last but not least, the FT offers data on worldwide container shipping (from yesterday's print edition, therefore no link):

- According to analysts, the industry (i.e. all container shipping lines worldwide) is estimated to post 2009 losses of 32 bn $ (!)

- Placed orders for new container vessels amount to 49 % of the existing capacity- According to market forcasts, roughly 40 % of orders are expected to be cancelled, the rest is being built.

- Cosco (China) has outstanding orders of 89 % of capacity, Hanjin (Korea) of 72 %, and some smaller lines have >100 %.

The CEO of Neptune Orient Lines is quoted as saying: "I have no idea what in the world they (-> lines with large order books) have in mind. What would you do with that number of ships?"

See also this earlier post on this blog:The container shipping disaster

Kommentare:

  1. Maybe that's a cheap new way to see the world: Rent an empty container on a container ship...

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  2. Darf man hier eigentlich auch auf Deutsch kommentieren, oder muß es Englisch sein?

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  3. That is bad news for the shipping industry. On the other hand, China is far from being alone in helping out the shipyards. Germany helped out Lindau Werft with a political credit by HSH Nordbank, too.

    Obviously maintaining the ship building overcapacity will further depress ship prices and in turn charter rates. Also, I somewhere read that nearly no shipping liner manages to cancel orders without unacceptable fines. Thus, many of the unwanted ships will be built unless the buyer gets bankrupt.

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  4. @ketzerisch:

    HSH Nordbank again, huh? Shipping finance is such a wonderful business to be in right now, I'm sure the bank has a great future...

    From what I know, you're right: Cancellations are frequently tricky due to contractual fines. But I think there is every reason to believe that lots of shipping lines will indeed go bankrupt during the next few years. Unless there is a sudden miraculous recovery in trade flows...

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  5. @anonym

    Kommentare werden in jeder beliebigen Sprache akzeptiert. Ich kann aber nicht garantieren, daß ich auf Arabische oder Japanische Kommentare auch antworten werde...

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  6. The shipbuilding industry could be 1.5% of the Chinese GDP.
    So,the fall could be a big cut .

    But from the other side, the infrastructure /investment into the new ports/shipbuilding docks could be in a simmilar magnitude.

    And it is just a small potion of the full Chinese ecconomy.But I think it show well the general conditions...

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