China's Q4 GDP supposedly grew 6.8 % yoy. Meanwhile, yoy electricity use contracted 7 % in November and 9 % in December.
Considering the pronounced weakness in energy-intensive sectors such as steel, cement and construction, a drop in electricity use isn't necessarily at odds with overall GDP growth (though it's a bit hard to say, because industrial heat generation doesn't rely on the electricity grid, but on other sources, mostly coal-fired ovens).
Still, the extent of the gap is strange: Household electricity use should be quite constant, so the drop must be due to a very sharp decrease in heavy-industrial output. Makes 6.8 % yoy GDP growth sound a bit unlikely.
And now we are told yoy electricity use in Jan/Feb was still down 3.7 %. But steel output is up 2 %, and cement output 17 %.
So if energy-intensive heavy-industry output is indeed up, how come overall electricity use is still down?
Assuming the numbers are correct, the only possible explanation is a sharp slow-down in light manufacturing.
The 50 % Jan/Feb yoy decrease in Taiwan's exports to China points in the same direction.
Doesn't bode well for Q1 GDP, I'd say.
Shaun Rein on the TSM
vor 10 Monaten
Keine Kommentare:
Kommentar veröffentlichen